US natural gas inventories are expected to fall below the five-year average by November as production remains flat, the Energy Information Administration reported.

  • Inventories are expected to reach 3,592 billion cubic feet (Bcf) by the start of the winter heating season in November. This is 159 Bcf lower than the previous five-year average from 2016 to 2020.
  • Withdrawals of natural gas in the previous winter heating season were above average, while injections into storage in the summer were below average.
  • Production of dry natural gas has also remained flat so far this year at 91.5 Bcf per day, 0.4 Bcf lower than 2020. Production in February also fell by more than 6.5 Bcf per day due to the extreme cold.
  • Exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) hit record-high levels this year, averaging 9.4 Bcf per day so far this year. This is driven by heightened capacity and the growth in international natural gas and LNG prices. 

Inventories have grown 960 Bcf so far this injection season, which will last until October 31. This is 14% less than the five-year average from April to July.