• The Swiss government raised the country’s economic growth outlook to 3.6% in 2021. 
  • Food prices in New Zealand inched up 0.4% in May 2021 (month-on-month).
  • New Zealand’s deficit for the seasonally adjusted current account (CA) grew 16.27% to NZ$5.0 billion in Q1 2021.

The NZD/CHF traded at a +0.46% price change on June 15, 2021, from the previous day. It hit a high of 0.6423 after opening at 0.6392. 

The New Zealand dollar gained over the Swiss franc after food prices inched up 0.4% in May 2021 (month-on-month) from a previous reading of 1.1%. Restaurant meals and grocery prices grew as well(after seasonal adjustment). In addition, prices of non-alcoholic beverages surged 1.3% (MoM). 

May 2021 saw the producer price index (PPI) for Switzerland jump 0.83% to 102.40 points from 101.56 recorded in April 2021. 

Switzerland’s annual PPI

Switzerland’s annual PPI

The Swiss government raised the economic growth outlook of the country to 3.6% in 2021 betting on recovery after easing Covid-19 restrictions. It would be followed by a 3.3% increase in 2022 as the government weighs in on the fifth reopening wave on June 23, 2021. 

Referendum

Swiss voters rejected the government’s climate change policy through a referendum—the policy aimed at introducing a special levy on car fuel and air-ticket tax to lower pollution. 

With the country responsible for only 0.1% of the global greenhouse gas emissions, the citizens were more concerned about the economic recovery as opposed to climate protection. It cast doubts about Switzerland’s ability to meet the Paris Agreement targets. The policy supporters worried about water pollution by pesticides and the destruction of plants/animals. 

Annual SNB payouts

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) monetary policy has been questioned due to underfunding of the annual payouts to the governments (national and regional). 

Since 2005, the bank’s profit margin has reached 170 billion francs ($189 billion) with up to 79.41% in its reserves. By 2021, the bank had only distributed 35 billion Swiss francs ($38.91 billion) and stored up 135 billion francs ($150.09 billion). 

Ahead of SNB’s monetary policy statement on June 17, 2021, it will be seen whether SNB will increase the ratio without hurting the bank’s profit stability. 

The SNB is also expected to retain the policy rate at -0.75% in its decision meeting. The Swiss Franc is still safe heaven among investors despite a 0.6% rise in consumer prices (in May 2021). April 2021 saw the prices rise by 0.3%, but the increase is still insufficient to prompt the SNB to raise rates. Inflation rates are yet to reach the bank’s target range of 0-2%.

NZ Current Account

New Zealand’s current account for May 2021 (year-on-year) stood at -NZ$7.24 billion. It was higher than the previous balance of -NZ$2.55 billion and beat consensus estimates at -NZ$6.68 billion. 

NZ CA deficit

NZ CA deficit

The deficit for the seasonally adjusted current account (CA) grew to NZ$5.0 billion in Q1 2021. It signaled a 16.27% rise from the -NZ$4.3 billion reported in Q2 2008. Q1 2021 also saw the annual deficit account for 2.2% of the nation’s GDP at NZ$7.2 billion. 

The value of imported products rose above that of exported goods leading to a deficit of NZ$1.5 billion. It was the first time imports rose above exports since Q1 2020. Seasonally adjusted imports jumped to NZ$16 billion (+NZ$1.3 billion), with exports falling to NZ$14.5 billion (-NZ$251 million). 

Technical analysis

The NZD/CHF pair formed a downward breakout that was confirmed on April 30, 2021 at 0.6592. 

NZD/CHF Chart

NZD/CHF Chart

The price hit resistance at 0.6713. Buying momentum slowed down, as shown in the decrease among buyers. The 14-day RSI supports an increase in sellers at 29.90 (at the oversold zone). We could see an increase in the price uptrend towards 0.6512 or a reversal to 0.6390.